This Week at Amtrak; April 7, 2008

This Week at Amtrak; April 7, 2008


A weekly digest of events, opinions, and forecasts from
United Rail Passenger Alliance, Inc.
1526 University Boulevard, West, PMB 203
Jacksonville, Florida 32217-2006 USA
Telephone 904-636-7739, Electronic Mail info@unitedrail.org
http://www.unitedrail.org



Volume 5, Number 12



Founded over three decades ago in 1976, URPA is a nationally known policy institute that focuses on solutions and plans for passenger rail systems in North America. Headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, URPA has professional associates in Minnesota, California, Arizona, New Mexico, the District of Columbia, Texas, and New York. For more detailed information, along with a variety of position papers and other documents, visit the URPA web site at http://www.unitedrail.org.


URPA is not a membership organization, and does not accept funding from any outside sources.


1) As everyone knows by now, it’s the silly season, when politics are in the air, and presidential campaigns are in full swing.

Along with the silly season comes the usual avalanche of false or misleading information about various candidates.

Making the rounds this week is drivel about Senator John McCain and Amtrak.

2) Before we can go any further talking about the future, let’s revisit the past and take another look at the present.

The Bush administration, among other things it has been blamed for, has been unfairly labeled “anti-Amtrak” by many people, some of which are not fully informed.

Yes, the Bush administration has made some gaffes about Amtrak, especially coming from former Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta. Mr. Mineta, who served the Bush administration during the tumultuous times of the Gunn stewardship of Amtrak, made a most unfortunate series of speeches and public statements about passenger rail which proved two realities: First, Mr. Mineta relied far too much on staff work, and didn’t do enough of his own research, and second, Mr. Mineta knew far more about air travel than passenger train travel. Neither of these things helped Mr. Mineta, nor the Bush administration.

Also, during one unfortunate discussion of an upcoming fiscal year budget for the federal government, the Bush administration sent a “zero budget” request for Amtrak to Congress. Much too late, the administration said it was trying to create a reasonable dialogue about Amtrak by stimulating debate on a budget number, but fumbled this concept badly.

The resulting debate caused by this nasty incident was greatly helpful, and resulted in the currently Amtrak reauthorization before the Senate, and soon before the House of Representatives.

Many people immediately (aided by NARP) jumped to the conclusion the Bush administration was “anti-Amtrak” because of the bad timing of the zero request and following explanation which came too late.

On top of this, many in the United States Department of Transportation demanded Amtrak become more fiscally responsible (gasp!) and take some extreme measures to reel in certain costs, including food and beverage service costs. Amtrak, not being the most creative corporate soul on the planet, took completely the wrong path to solving this problem, and slashed budgets and food service, much of which it is now trying to restore (for the third time in history; will these people ever learn?).

Again, instead of looking to Amtrak to become more responsible and self-sufficient, many people sadly just proclaimed the Bush administration “anti-Amtrak,” and continued on their often hate-filled way.

Too many people never bothered to look into the reality of the situation, and too many people were willing to take the word of people and organizations who were more interested in promoting their own positions or organizational interests instead of getting to the true heart of the problem, which is an aching need to fix Amtrak. Once Amtrak is fixed, then all of these other problems will begin to melt away.

2) All of this brings us to Senator John McCain, putative nominee of the Republican Party for President of the United States.

Senator McCain, the former Chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, which oversees Amtrak and other transportation modes, has often been labeled “anti-Amtrak” because he has reacted to bad numbers fed to him by Amtrak, and the perceived dismal performance of one of the Amtrak trains which runs through his state of Arizona, the Sunset Limited.

Amtrak through the years has constantly allowed the Sunset to be misconstrued and misunderstood. Nobody has taken the time to look at the Sunset and wonder, if it was a real daily train instead of a tri-weekly travesty, would it be as healthy as other long distance trains? Yes, of course it would be. But, Amtrak has consciously chosen to keep the Sunset in a poor position, either by continued tri-weekly operation, or unceremoniously lopping off the eastern end of the Sunset’s route after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, where 46% of the train’s revenue was produced east of New Orleans and into Florida.

So, as Senator McCain continued to look into Amtrak, and especially Amtrak in his home state, all he saw were bad numbers and even worse forecasts. Mr. McCain acted in the same manner any frugal or responsible businessman would, and said, “We’ve go to do something about this problem. If it’s been going on for this many decades, and only getting worse, why are we putting up with this mess?”

And, he was 100% correct, based on the only information he had, originating from Amtrak, which focuses the vast majority of its resources on the Northeast Corridor and other cost-sucking routes, instead of a long distance system which throws off positive cash flow on most every route.

Here’s something most knee-jerk reaction people haven’t thought of: Amtrak lives and dies by acts of Congress, not acts of the White House and Executive Branch of the federal government.

When Senator McCain was Chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, he was in a far greater position to cause harm to Amtrak, since he had a very big say in Amtrak’s purse strings and operations and approval of board appointments, than he will as President of the United States, if elected. A president can only make recommendations to Congress, not enact laws, nor create money, as Congress does.

Is it likely Mr. McCain will personally change his views on Amtrak and passenger rail? Probably not, based on the previous information he has been fed for years, without opposing or corrected information. That really doesn’t matter. What matters is what a McCain administration Secretary of Transportation, Federal Railway Administration Administrator, or high level political appointee bureaucrats in those two federal department will do. They can be educated and made to understand the possibilities beyond knee-jerk reactions.

3) But, some say, look at what some columnists have to say about Senator McCain and Amtrak, and look at what some [allegedly] reputable rail industry magazines have to say about the bad people in the Bush Administration and Amtrak.

Let’s take a reality check here, too. There are less than a dozen journalists in this country fully qualified to write about passenger rail on a non-biased basis. Rarely, does any journalist do their own digging into Amtrak facts and figures and come to conclusions not reached by the hand-outs from Amtrak. With the exception of one trade magazine, Progressive Railroading, and one major railfan based magazine, Passenger Train Journal, does anyone “get it right” about passenger rail and Amtrak? Other than these two publications, all of the others too readily take what Amtrak hands them and turn it into gospel. There is little, if any, independent reporting, and far too much opinion and concocted facts stem from the “if we lose Amtrak, we lose everything forever, so we better support Amtrak, no matter what” sky-is-falling crowd.

Any publication, whether it’s this space, or anything else from any other organization or publication should be taken, digested, and used to form honest, independent opinion, not just to parrot someone else’s agenda.

4) Here is what one Washington wag, a former senior level federal government staffer, has to say about a John McCain presidency and Amtrak.

[Begin quote]

A few sad realities about Washington and Capitol Hill (regardless of nominal party control of either branch). Amtrak has been "caught" and its phony numbers deconstructed on numerous occasions. Guess what? It doesn't matter. There is a sufficient combined number of Pavlovian foamers, NEC and geographic-entitlement subsidy-seekers, and union automatons – in both parties – to keep the funds flowing regardless of the facts, albeit at a life-support/slow-motion-liquidation level. Thus Reality Number 1 is, the facts – and the numbers – don't matter. There will also be no key players in leadership positions who can (or will try to) mitigate this pattern as long as the Dems retain Congress. Remember, even when the Warrington glide-path/Acela revenue miracle fairy tale (and that's a kind description) fell apart in shreds under the '97 reform law, even a Republican Congress did virtually nothing about it. (I would still argue that contract-termination of Acela was the financially rational and fiduciary thing for the Amtrak directors to do, but that would have taken away Acela's chief function – being a propaganda vehicle.)

Second, whether he knows it or not, and even if he wins the White House, McCain will in all probability have no substantive impact on the dysfunctional Amtrak status quo – at least as to funding. Amtrak funding (in the hypothetical form of presidential budgets) has been reduced and even zeroed multiple times since the mid-'80s. Congress ignores it – reflecting Reality Number 1 above. The only way McCain (or any president) could "enforce" a reduction or elimination of Amtrak funding would be to veto the entire DOT appropriation. (I am assuming the presidency will continue to be handicapped by the absence of a line-item veto.) No president has had the backbone to do that, and even if one did, the status quo coalition would bring us back to Reality Number 1, and an almost certain override. A McCain would be more likely than his competitors to veto retrograde non-appropriations legislation that is worse than the status quo. (We'll probably get a chance to see W sign that kind of product this year.) Do not expect much follow-through from McCain on Amtrak though. His track record regarding the 1997 law was one, to use an air combat phrase, of "fire and forget."

[End quote]

5) Here is what we have said before in this space: This presidential election is about huge, earth-shaping issues and schools of thought. There is a wonderful, healthy debate going on this election season about a number of topics. We are a country at war, and we are a country with a slowing economy, riding a predictable downward wave that’s just a part of yet another cycle of the economy.

Responsible voters will weigh each and every issue and it’s place in the political firmament and how our country will help shape the world in the next four years.

Should your vote be solely based on one very small government program, known as Amtrak? Congressional power is far more important to the future of Amtrak than executive power. Vote your conscience for the big picture, not the dysfunctional picture that always results from viewing Amtrak.



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J. Bruce Richardson
President
United Rail Passenger Alliance, Inc.
1526 University Boulevard, West, PMB 203
Jacksonville, Florida 32217-2006 USA
Telephone 904-636-7739
brucerichardson@unitedrail.org
http://www.unitedrail.org