This Week at Amtrak; January 28, 2008

A weekly digest of events, opinions, and forecasts from
United Rail Passenger Alliance, Inc.
1526 University Boulevard, West, PMB 203
Jacksonville, Florida 32217-2006 USA
Telephone 904-636-7739, Electronic Mail info@unitedrail.org
http://www.unitedrail.org



Volume 5, Number 3



Founded over three decades ago in 1976, URPA is a nationally known policy institute that focuses on solutions and plans for passenger rail systems in North America. Headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, URPA has professional associates in Minnesota, California, Arizona, New Mexico, the District of Columbia, Texas, and New York. For more detailed information, along with a variety of position papers and other documents, visit the URPA web site at http://www.unitedrail.org.


URPA is not a membership organization, and does not accept funding from any outside sources.


1) Where to begin? There are so many choices.

– Someone must have successfully been hitting Amtrak with a “stupid stick,” because Amtrak is doing something really stupid and unforgivable.

– Amtrak clearly doesn’t take its mission of providing reliable, national passenger rail service seriously. It obviously has no intention of ever being a successful organization.

– We’ve been horrified to see what happened to the east end of the Sunset Limited since Hurricane Katrina blew ashore, and now, could we be seeing a repeat performance with the Coast Starlight and the Oregon mudslide?

– Once again, we’re seeing the direct result of Amtrak being a child of government, with a mentality of serving its passengers only when convenient for the operating department, and not worrying about maintaining market share, its franchise with the public, or running trains which are already paid for annually by continuing doses of free federal monies. Amtrak just can’t help proving for itself how irrelevant it is in the national transportation marketplace.

2) Here’s the Amtrak service disruption notice that started this whole, unholy mess.

[Begin quote]

January 23, 2008
4:30 pm PST

Due to massive mudslides over railroad tracks north of Chemult, Oregon on January 19, Amtrak Coast Starlight service will be disrupted January 24 through January 31, with no alternate transportation provided. The Union Pacific Railroad has suspended all railroad traffic through the area.

As a result, the following operation plan is in effect:


The northbound Coast Starlight (Train 14) is canceled from Los Angeles to Seattle from January 24 through January 31*.

The southbound Coast Starlight (Train 11) is canceled from Seattle to Los Angeles from January 25 through February 1*.

*These dates may be extended.

Although the Coast Starlight is canceled in its entirety between Los Angeles and Seattle during this period, Amtrak does offer service on other trains and motorcoaches between Southern California and the Pacific Northwest. For travel throughout California, passengers may make motorcoach connections at Los Angeles Union Station to the San Joaquins train service for travel between Bakersfield and Sacramento/Oakland.

Passengers may also take the Pacific Surfliner trains between Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo. At San Luis Obispo, they may take a motorcoach connection to the Capitol Corridor train service in San Jose for travel to Sacramento/Auburn and points in between. Amtrak offers a motorcoach connection between Sacramento and Medford, Ore.

For travel throughout the Pacific Northwest, passengers may take the Amtrak Cascades service from Eugene, Ore. to Vancouver, BC.

Amtrak regrets any inconvenience. This information is correct as of the above time and date. Information is subject to change as conditions warrant. Passengers are encouraged to call 800-USA-RAIL or visit Amtrak.com for schedule information and train status updates.

[End quote]

Looking at the Union Pacific Railroad (owner and operator of the track in Oregon) shots of this mess from a helicopter, it’s amazing no person was hurt, and one can only hope as much wildlife as possible was spared. This is rugged, mountain territory; the mudslide took place on the side of a mountain and slid down onto the Union Pacific tracks which host the daily Coast Starlight. Cleaning up this mess is taking some serious planning and logistics, and the workers who get this vital north/south rail line reopened in winter weather conditions will be nothing short of heroes.

3) Paul Dyson, long time URPA member and currently President of the Railroad Passenger Association of California and Nevada, wrote the following letter to Amtrak President and CEO Alex Kummant upon the announcement of Amtrak’s plans for annulling the Coast Starlight along its entire 1,377 mile route, traversing nearly the entire Left Coast of the United States from Seattle to Los Angeles.

[Begin quote]

RAIL PASSENGER ASSOCIATION OF CALIFORNIA

22nd January, 2008

Mr. Alex Kummant
President and Chief Executive Officer
NATIONAL RAILROAD PASSENGER CORPORATION
60 Massachusetts Avenue NE
Washington DC 20002

SUSPENSION OF COAST STARLIGHT SERVICE

Dear Mr. Kummant:

After our meeting last March in Los Angeles rail advocates on the west coast felt optimistic that there is a new, more businesslike attitude at Amtrak, and that we could look forward to a new era of customer service and a determination to protect the franchise. I am therefore very distressed to learn that your company proposes to suspend Coast Starlight service throughout its entire length because of a mudslide in central Oregon. Although your managers may be telling you that there is an opportunity to save operating cash during this off peak season, you are making a very big mistake by suspending service in California.

The California Transportation Commission meets February 14 to decide, amongst other issues, whether to fund a menu of rail projects approved by the voters last year with Proposition 1B. Included in this list is $25 million for signal and track improvements on the Coast line, as well as a number of investments in the state-supported corridors. In view of your stated objective to build partnerships with the states, the timing of your demonstration of the unreliability of passenger rail on one of your most popular routes could not be worse.

I have just spent this past 4 days in San Luis Obispo at a meeting of the Coast Rail Coordinating Council and at a RailPAC sponsored public meeting. At the CRCC, representatives from all the counties between L.A. and the Bay area continue to express support for expanded rail service. They plan to lobby the CTC meeting in favor of the $25 million for the Coast. The RailPAC meeting attracted over 50 residents who came to learn about how passenger rail can provide improved mobility for residents and attract tourists and their dollars. I was guest on a local talk radio station Friday evening and the callers were unanimous in their support for rail, with one caveat; poor reliability. All the goodwill generated by the efforts of our group and of those public officials who support passenger rail will be devalued by your opportunistic decision to save a few operating dollars.

This should be a busy season on the Coast Starlight, at least in California. The weather is temperate and there are hotel rooms available especially midweek. You should be promoting midweek packages especially for overseas tourists, not canceling trains. And don’t let your people tell you that trains 798/799 provide a substitute. These ghastly trains, with their sad Horizon equipment, third world schedules, leaving L.A. too early to make a San Diego connection, and bus service north of San Luis Obispo, are NOT an acceptable substitute for the Coast Starlight.

I strongly recommend that you review this decision. I realize that reconfiguring schedules in these circumstances takes time and effort. That’s why you have managers. I realize that some passengers will cancel their trips and you will lose some revenue. But you will lose far more in goodwill and credibility if you take the easy way out and cancel the trains. So do some low cost local advertising on the Coast, with coupons, suspend the reservations only requirement, and use this as an opportunity to introduce your service to some new customers.

I hope to hear from you soon that you have reversed your decision.

Yours faithfully,

Paul J. Dyson, President

[End quote]

4) Let’s get some basic facts into play. The track-blocking, Coast Starlight-stopping mudslide is located approximately at Chemult, Oregon, only 432 miles into the southbound run of the Starlight. Regional Amtrak Cascades daily service extends south from Seattle (it actually begins in Vancouver, British Columbia in Canada) 310 of the 432 Starlight route miles to Eugene, Oregon. It’s about a 10 ½ hour run from Seattle south to Chemult.

Coming north, Chemult is a full 945 route miles from the Los Angeles terminal. That part of the run takes 23 ½ hours, and includes such heavy-hitter stations in California as Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Salinas, San Jose, Oakland, Emeryville (both Oakland and Emeryville handle passengers transferring to San Francisco across the bay), Martinez, Davis, Sacramento, Chico, Redding, and Dunsmuir (Mount Shasta). In Oregon, Klamath Falls is also south of Chemult.

By blanking the entire run of the Coast Starlight, Amtrak is automatically saying how unimportant these stations are to the functioning of its national system, and substitute regional service will have to make do.

Harrumph.

As much as Amtrak would like us to, we can’t ignore the financial aspects of this sophomoric and moronic decision to shut down the Starlight.

For fiscal year 2007, the Starlight generated:

Revenue – $29,171,300
Revenue passenger miles – 205,891,000
Passengers carried – 343,500
Average length of trip – 600 miles
Average of passengers per train mile – 203
Train miles – 1,012,000
Seat miles – 353,293,734
Load factor – 58%

Impressive numbers for two trains each day, one in each direction.

The Cascades, Capitols, San Joaquin, and Surfliner regional services combined together, which serve as partial substitutes for the Starlight, generated the following figures for FY 2007:

Combined revenue – $97,296,400
Combined revenue passenger miles – 543,315,000
Combined passengers carried – 5,636,300
Combined average length of trip – 113 miles
Combined average of passengers per train mile – 106
Combined train miles – 5,061,000
Combined seat miles – 1,557,911,085
Combined average load factor – 36%

The Cascades, Capitols, San Joaquins, and Surfliners each day operate a combined total of 75 trains per day, including each direction.

How does the one long distance service, which includes sleeping cars, a diner, two lounge cars, coaches, and a baggage car compare with the combined regional services which offer coaches, cafe/lounges, and a first class coach service, and baggage service (not all of these services are available on all trains)?

Coast Starlight percentage comparison of four other combined services (Two daily departures versus 75 daily departures)

Coast Starlight Revenue – 30% of combined services
Coast Starlight Revenue passenger miles – 38% of combined services
Coast Starlight passengers carried – 6% of combined services
Coast Starlight average length of trip – 530% of combined services
Coast Starlight average of passengers per train mile – 191% of combined services
Coast Starlight train miles – 20% of combined services
Coast Starlight seat miles – 23% of combined services
Coast Starlight load factor – 161% of combined services

Look at the astounding strength of transportation and financial output of two daily long distance trains departing opposite terminals each day versus a total of 75 daily short distance and regional trains departing opposite terminals each day.

Amtrak is willing to throw away this kind of financial and revenue passenger mile strength, hoping passengers purchasing sleeping car accommodations, and passengers purchasing coach accommodations expecting full lounge and dining car services are somehow going to accept a lower level of service on a regional train?

It is impossible to make a rational argument for not running the Starlight north from Los Angeles at least to Sacramento, then provide a bus-bridge to Cascades service and a stub-end, northern end Starlight from Eugene to Seattle.

Rational people have to ask, “what is Amtrak thinking?”.

5) Here is what one Amtrak wag has said.

[Begin quote]

Despite the questionable legality of this erstwhile train-off (which SMACKS of the Sunset's discontinuance east of NOL, and scares me to death!), I think it starts us down a much more slippery slope. More than one Amtraker today said "We already have corridor service over most of the route; people can just ride the corridor trains." Never mind that [Train no.] 11 does a very good business SEA-EUG, and [Train No.] 14 could do well as the ONLY afternoon/evening train running EUG-SEA, if they'd start selling tickets on it again. And I know darn well how robust the business is in California, in spite of poor timekeeping.

But it seems that Kummant and the Board are intent on transforming this company into a contract operator for State corridors (on a cost-plus basis, of course. Who needs financial discipline when you're reimbursed for all your costs plus a percentage?), and paying lip service to the LD trains. The only problem is, if all we do is run trains for states, then what do we bring to the table that's unique among rail operators? Why couldn't Herzog or some other company run trains for a state for much less cost (due to about 10 fewer layers of middle management and much lower overhead), and probably do a much better job than us at mechanical and customer service issues?

You see, my real fear is that we're going to marginalize ourselves right out of business. And absolutely stupid decisions like the Starlight annulment further cement that fear in my mind. We have absolutely no vision for the future. No plans, no cohesive strategies. We're just going to take whatever business the states throw at us. In short, we have no mission any more.

[End quote]

Along those lines, here is what two other wags outside of the company had to say.

[Begin quote]

WAG ONE: [The Starlight annulment] “Puts Kummant right in the camp of the Downs/Warrington school of management.”

WAG TWO: “At least Downs and Warrington had a mission, a ‘vision for the future,’
no matter WHAT [anyone] thought of it!

“Kummant looks more and more like one of those ‘dull grey men’ who get chosen as a ‘safe’ selection for CEO, when a company doesn't know where it's supposed to go. Sometimes this happens when a strong CEO departs without having groomed a successor, such as at American Airlines after C.R. Smith retired, and years later after Bob Crandall retired. But at Amtrak there is no ‘strong,’ only ‘rudderless.’

WAG ONE: “Absolutely. Kummant's career path pre-Amtrak screamed that out, but the Board had told the search firm (or the search firm had convinced the Board) they needed to hire a candidate with a rigidly-defined set of criteria, and that's what the search firm produced: a resume that fit the criteria, rather than a leader with a vision for success with the business. This is a classic failure mode. The evidence so far suggests Kummant is not experienced enough, and not inherently bright enough, to see past what his staff is feeding him. The fact he got rid of a few of the worst nitwits in management says nothing about Kummant's vision, analytical skill, or leadership. He looks more and more to me like a classic empty suit. The good news is that unless THIS represents his "level of incompetence" and he sticks around because he can't get hired anywhere else, his entire career history suggests he will move on to something new after wandering around the desert for a few short years with Amtrak.”

[End quote]

Here is a union communique from union leadership to union members.

[Begin quote]

Date: Jan 22, 2008 10:13 PM

Subject: Calif. Respond to Coast Starlight Suspension

Brothers and Sisters,

For those of you who don't already know, a major slide in the Oregon Cascades has blocked rail service between Klamath Falls and Eugene. As a result, Amtrak plans to suspend operation of the Coast Starlight on the entire route between Los Angeles and Seattle, perhaps until mid-February. Historically, the Corporation has run stub trains, with or without bus bridges in similar circumstances, but this time management seems to think it would not be cost efficient.

The sensible thing to do in the Northwest would be to operate an abbreviated Seattle to Eugene section running on the Coast Starlight schedule. We have the crews and the equipment. We also have a marketing department, right? While service is suspended over the Cascades, have them push a replacement train, complimenting the already busy Seattle to Eugene Corridor. Offer two for one tickets, or other incentives to help fill seats. A similar strategy could be employed in California with their own section.

I know many of you have contacted your State Representatives and Senators and voiced your concerns over the temporary elimination of the Coast Starlight run. If you have not, I ask all of you to help our affected Brothers and Sisters by doing the same.

Meanwhile, I will continue to coordinate with our General Committee and Legislative Boards in California, Oregon and Washington, and our National Legislative Office in DC, in an ongoing effort to pressure the Corporation to reverse its hasty decision.

I have also copied a link to a letter sent to Amtrak President Kummant by the California Rail Passenger Association. Their message is clear and right on point. Washington and Oregon should be no different.

I will keep you advised as the situation changes and sincerely appreciate all your help.

Fraternally,

Dave Estes
Local Chairman, BLET Division 60

[End quote]

6) Let’s take a roll call. Amtrak west coast management made a decision to annul the Starlight. This was a regional decision that had an impact on two Amtrak divisions, the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest. Amtrak senior management in Washington apparently went along with the decision.

– Amtrak lower level management employees don’t like the decision. They are paid to run trains, and that’s what they want to do.

– Amtrak operating level employees don’t like the decision (see immediately above).

– Amtrak unions don’t like the decision (see immediately above).

– Amtrak outside observers don’t like the decision.

– Amtrak passengers don’t like the decision, because there is no train to ride.

– Politicians don’t like the decision, because voters/passengers/observers/union members are unhappy, and that makes politicians unhappy.

This is a tough decision for Amtrak management to defend. This bad decision loudly demonstrates how little Amtrak itself thinks of the service it provides; if there is no service, that’s okay with Amtrak, because it is more convenient to not run trains. Perhaps it would be much more convenient for Amtrak to completely eliminate all trains, then everyone could just to go work each day, collect a paycheck based on free federal monies, and then go home without having to make any inconvenient decisions, or actually create and put into action contingency plans. What are these people thinking?

7) There is one very important point to remember about the Amtrak managers who made the decision to annul the Starlight. Amtrak managers and employees are evaluated and rated based on how much money they save in expenses for the company. They are not evaluated on how much money they make for the company. Therefore, from a personal standpoint for these managers making decisions, any trains they deem to annul for any reason, is considered a good move. Any train that is kept moving, no matter how much money it makes, has no impact on their personal performance ratings (which impact promotions, raises, bonuses, etc.). Amtrak managers have a personal motivation to cancel trains, not keep them running.

8) On the other side of the country on the Right Coast, a similar scenario will be playing itself out along the route of the Crescent, which runs from New York City to New Orleans, via Atlanta, Georgia.

For four weeks in February and March, Amtrak is annulling the Crescent between Atlanta and New Orleans four days a week to allow host railroad Norfolk Southern to perform track maintenance and upgrades. The Crescent will only run its full 1,377 mile route Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays. Mondays through Thursdays it will terminate and originate in Atlanta. That means 518 route miles between Atlanta and New Orleans, which includes stops in Birmingham, Alabama along with Meridian and Hattiesburg Mississippi will be without train service and no alternative transportation, such as a bus-bridge will be offered.

(Sigh) Without going into all of the obvious arguments about this yet-another bad decision by Amtrak management (see above for a complete list of the arguments), again, how can Amtrak management be so callous about its future?

Maintenance blitzes have become common in the railroad industry. The idea is to minimize track time interference while maximizing maintenance resources to get the job done as quickly as possible. While this is often favorable to freight train operations (which can take detour routes, or the company can simply notify its customers it is not accepting freight for movement on those dates due to understandable maintenance, or more trains can be run at night when maintenance crews are not working), this technique is not favorable to passenger train operations. As of yet, no one has made a serious attempt to solve this problem.

However, Amtrak could at least make an effort to accommodate its passengers by providing a bus bridge or operate two stub-end trains instead of completely annulling service along a portion of a route which stretches for over 500 miles.

Also, figure into the equation the plight of New Orleans, which is served by two daily trains, the Crescent and the City of New Orleans, and the tri-weekly Sunset Limited. Amtrak’s abandonment of the Crescent route for four days a week for four weeks does nothing to assist New Orleans in its rebuilding efforts. For all Amtrak did in the initial time of crisis and rebuilding, it now seems to be regularly turning its back on New Orleans. It has stripped away much of the New Orleans maintenance facility, taken management positions out of New Orleans, and otherwise downgraded its operations there. Don’t forget, this comes at a time of year which includes the beginning of the Mardi Gras season in New Orleans, one of the major tourist draws for the city. As many cities and town across the nation will attest, Amtrak – at best – can be considered a fair-weather friend.

9) Between the lack of service between New Orleans and Florida after the what seems to be permanent end of the Sunset Limited after Hurricane Katrina, the annulment of the Starlight and Crescent, Amtrak is more and more making itself automatically irrelevant in the national transportation picture. It will become increasing difficult for Amtrak to justify itself to anyone in Congress outside of the Northeast Corridor when it comes time for annual free federal money hearings. How could anyone with a straight face address Congress and say Amtrak is meeting its original mission of providing a nationwide rail passenger system?

The type of thinking which allows Amtrak managers to annul the Starlight and Crescent harks back to the dark days of the 1990s and the Mercer report train offs, where it was supposed passengers would continue to ride trains anytime Amtrak deemed it convenient to run trains. That disaster took a toll on Amtrak’s credibility, and still today cities and towns have been without Amtrak service because of the audacity of the report that ignored public demand and political realities.

The type of corporate hubris it takes to make such annulment decisions speaks volumes about Amtrak’s mind set and lack of vision to serve its passengers, or honor its bankers and owners by making the best use of free federal monies and state monies. For too long, Amtrak has had a complete lack of accountability to the American public. The few times a federal administration has attempted to hold Amtrak accountable, there have been howls of protest (including from this writer) because the attempts have been so misdirected and have tried to solve all of the wrong problems. When is anyone going to “get it right”?

10) Amtrak’s settlement with its unions have spawned the expected conspiracy theories. Most of them have been centered on the Bush administration and how the conspiracy theorists believe the uncontested union claims recommended by the Presidential Emergency Board (appointed by the White House) are designed to bankrupt the company, and, therefore, put an end to Amtrak once and for all.

Such hogwash. The relatively minor amout of money the unions settlement is going to cost the company in the overall scheme of things is hardly enough to even give Amtrak a light shove towards bankruptcy court. Besides, Amtrak has more than enough annual free federal monies flowing into the company that it can simply convert some of those funds from the perpetual upgrades of the black hole of finances on the Northeast Corridor to pay the costs. For the future, Amtrak can easily plead its case to states which fund operations that higher labor costs equal higher state subsidy costs.

While it is a complete wonder to informed observers as to why the PEB rolled over on so many issues (especially the work rules changes, which could have been easy fixes), it’s difficult for rational people to accept any type of conspiracy theory on the part of the White House.

11) Here in Florida, everyone in the state is a-twitter over presidential politics, since Florida Republicans will go to the polls on Tuesday and help nominate a presidential candidate.

Naturally, in some quarters, presidential and congressional politics revolve around what each candidate will or will not do to Amtrak, which is a relatively minor issue to most politicians.

Think about this: If Amtrak would only take the initiative and use its resources to the best results and make itself as strong as possible, whoever becomes president every four years would have little or no bearing on the future of the company. Only as long as Amtrak remains a crippled child of government will presidential and congressional politics come into play. Why go through this agony when the real solution is just to make Amtrak a better, more self-reliant company that doesn’t need large levels of outside financial help?

12) One final note. In the last issue of TWA, a “throw-away” item was at the end of the column about the Union Pacific business train, and the locomotives which pull the train. The locomotives were inadvertently identified as “F” units, when, in reality, they are “E” units. Very little correspondence was received about the meat of the column about the union settlement, but a flood of correspondence was received about the misidentified locomotives. It’s imperative to get the really important facts straight.


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J. Bruce Richardson
President
United Rail Passenger Alliance, Inc.
1526 University Boulevard, West, PMB 203
Jacksonville, Florida 32217-2006 USA
Telephone 904-636-7739
brucerichardson@unitedrail.org
http://www.unitedrail.org