This Week at Amtrak; February 20, 2008

A weekly digest of events, opinions, and forecasts from
United Rail Passenger Alliance, Inc.
1526 University Boulevard, West, PMB 203
Jacksonville, Florida 32217-2006 USA
Telephone 904-636-7739, Electronic Mail info@unitedrail.org
http://www.unitedrail.org



Volume 5, Number 7



Founded over three decades ago in 1976, URPA is a nationally known policy institute that focuses on solutions and plans for passenger rail systems in North America. Headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, URPA has professional associates in Minnesota, California, Arizona, New Mexico, the District of Columbia, Texas, and New York. For more detailed information, along with a variety of position papers and other documents, visit the URPA web site at http://www.unitedrail.org.


URPA is not a membership organization, and does not accept funding from any outside sources.


COAST STARLIGHT LATE UPDATE: The Los Angeles Times reported at 10 P.M. EST February 19, 2008 Amtrak officials said they will provide coach service between Sacramento and Portland, Oregon, starting February 29th. From Portland, riders can connect with the Cascades service to Seattle and Vancouver, British Columbia. Only coach-class service is available, with no dining service provided.


The story does not make clear if this coach service is train service or bus service, and at press time, Amtrak has not posted a press release on its web site. However, some sources have told TWA Amtrak employees have made mention of a motorcoach connection in the works between Sacramento and Portland, a lengthy distance of 637 route miles by rail which takes the Coast Starlight 16 hours to traverse. Google Maps shows the distance of the trip via Interstate 5 to be 579 miles, taking travel time of 9 hours, considerably shorter and sooner than Amtrak’s rail route. Union Pacific Railroad, owner of the tracks which hosts the Coast Starlight, now says the mudslide over its tracks in Oregon which originally caused the annulment of the Coast Starlight earlier this year, will not be cleared until sometime in April, much later than originally thought. The next TWA will provide further details.


1) Richmond, our beloved capital, is under siege for the second time in a scant 143 years by another horde of ill-bred, marauding, bloodthirsty, Yankees. This time, the Northern riff raff are not using cannons, but instead are trying to steal the key to the Commonwealth of Virginia’s treasury.


The Commonwealth made inquiries to Amtrak about creating a second frequency on the Norfolk Southern Crescent route between Washington and Lynchburg. An inquiry has also been made about adding a second frequency between Washington and Newport News (Hampton Roads/Norfolk). Amtrak, just like the Yankees during the Late War, is trying to ransack Richmond, this time in the form of too high costs to run trains on a state contract.


Amtrak told the Commonwealth it could add one round trip passenger train daily along the Norfolk Southern route of the Crescent, running from Washington to Lynchburg via Alexandria, Manassas, Culpepper, and Charlottesville, with one-way route mileage of 173 miles, adding up to 346 route miles round trip.


Today’s Crescent departs northbound from Lynchburg at 6:07 A.M. and arrives in Washington at 10:10 A.M., and the southbound from Washington departs Washington at 6:30 P.M. and arrives in Lynchburg at 10:06 P.M. Virginia Railway Express, the Northern Virginia regional commuter service, already serves part of this route from Manassas to Washington. A one-ride trip from Manassas to Washington (or reverse) is $7.20. That same ride on the Crescent, on the same day, costs $22.00. It’s safe to say unless someone specifically wants to ride the Crescent with its broader array of amenities, then most riders are going to choose VRE.


To adequately compute ridership and revenue passenger miles for this train, an average length of trip must be established. Currently, the Crescent has an average length of trip of 520.1 miles, over a route length of 1,377 miles, so that measurement can’t be used. Considering known traffic patterns, and the availability of VRE service between Washington Union Station and Manassas and all points in between, the likeliest length of trip of the Virginia portion of the train is going to be 125 miles, just a bit more than the 112 mile distance between Charlottesville and Washington. Since the train will provide service all the way from Lynchburg to New York City, the average length of trip for passengers over the entire route will be much longer. We are calculating income and expenses here for the Commonwealth of Virginia based on the North Carolina model, where the state/commonwealth only pays for the portion of the train which operates in the state.


Charlottesville currently enjoys daily service on the Crescent at marketable hours, plus tri-weekly service on the Cardinal, which also serves a parallel route between Charlottesville and Washington (all the same station stops, even though part of the route between Charlottesville and Orange, Virginia is different). In addition, two popular daily Amtrak Thruway Motorcoaches serve Charlottesville.


Boardings and alightings are strong for Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Culpepper, Manassas, and Alexandria. Washington Union Station alone serves 3.7 million passengers a year for all services combined.


Here are the individual station numbers, of all passengers boarding and detraining.


Alexandria – 97,734 (Does not include VRE, but does include trains on CSX line to the south)
Manassas – 8,178 (Does not include VRE)
Culpepper – 4,151
Charlottesville – 48,190
Lynchburg – 18,744


There are some assumptions which are generally true when additional train frequencies are added. While the numbers do not automatically double, it’s reasonable to take a high percentage of the original numbers for the second train because the increase in frequencies opens a wider matrix for potential passenger travel. While someone may not want to travel from Charlottesville to Washington on the Crescent and return that same day on the Crescent, they may want to travel to Washington on a new frequency, and return on the Crescent. Any number of combinations become possible. We also cannot use raw numbers from the Crescent stations because many of the travelers are not traveling exclusively between those stations and Washington, but are traveling anywhere to and from other stations on the Crescent’s 1,377 mile route.


It is unlikely the Crescent will have any revenue passenger miles losses to the new train, but, rather, will have an increase of revenue passenger miles. Because many of the “shorts” (riders traveling a short distance between Charlottesville and Washington, as an example, traveling only 112 miles of the 1,377 mile route) most likely will migrate to the new train, this will open up space on the Crescent for travelers traveling a long trip length – and, therefore generating higher revenue passenger miles – for new riders on the Crescent from other stations outside of the new train’s route.


The new train, since it is an added frequency, will also gain ridership based on the travel choices of the Crescent, Cardinal, and the new train. Every time more choices are added, an entire new dimension of riders is added, too, because travel times become more flexible.


We do know Amtrak plans to take an existing New York to Washington Northeast Corridor regional train and extend it to Lynchburg. This will help the train in many ways, including a larger city pair matrix, plus by putting NEC equipment to better use by making longer runs.


Here’s a summary of what we know about Amtrak and the Commonwealth and a new train between Washington and Lynchburg.


– The train will begin in New York City and turn in Lynchburg for the return trip. Each one way trip will be about eight hours. This will require no extra passenger equipment, but will require on extra diesel locomotive for the run between Washington and Lynchburg. No extra onboard services personnel will be required, but an additional set of train and engine crew (engineers and conductors) will be required between Washington and Lynchburg.


– All of the stations on the Crescent route south of Washington are already open during daylight hours, seven days a week, so no additional station personnel will be required.


– Some type of wye or turn facility will have to be in place in Lynchburg, unless the train becomes a push-pull operation.


– Other than the possible cost of a turn facility in Lynchburg, and the addition of a small crew base in Lynchburg, no other infrastructure capital investment should be required. No additional signaling or sidings will be necessary along the Norfolk Southern route.


Amtrak says it needs $1.9 million dollars to subsidize this new train annually.


– Train mile costs to Norfolk Southern will likely be $1,010,320 for the year.


– Eight additional train and engine crew members will likely cost $515,000 for the year (actual operations may require fewer crew members).


– Miscellaneous operating costs (cost of the locomotive, fuel, maintenance on rolling stock, etc.) will likely cost $1,768,000 for the year.


Total – $3,293,320 for the year, not including any corporate overhead or reservations expenses, or splitting the cost of stations between the Crescent, Cardinal, and the new train.


Assumed ridership of 85,000 passengers a year, traveling an average distance of 125 miles per passenger (using the North Carolina formula where Virginia would only pay for the Virginia portion of the train, not the NEC portion, plus all passengers using the train in Virginia would accrue the largest portion of fares to the cost of the train in Virginia) at 17.73 cents per passenger mile equals $1,883,812 in revenue for the Virginia portion of the train only. That leaves a need for subsidy of $1,409,508, not $1,900,000 as Amtrak suggests, a difference of a half a million dollars a year.


Keep in mind, too, north of Washington – as does the Carolinean – this new train becomes just another NEC regional train, with all overhead already accounted for in the cost of NEC operations, plus revenues of 41.20 cents per passenger mile for those passengers traveling between Washington and New York City.


We do know in the past, with current contracts like Amtrak’s with the State of North Carolina, Amtrak charges North Carolina approximately $100,000 a year for one station agent to serve a station part-time along the route of the Carolinian. Who knows what Amtrak has padded into the Commonwealth of Virginia’s contract?


2) The southward extension of the NEC into Virginia has long been on the agenda of United Rail Passenger Alliance. On the CSX route to Richmond and Hampton Roads, this has already occurred, mostly made possible by the expansion of the old RF&P line between Richmond and Washington to handle more capacity. That capacity continues to expand, and such lucrative tourism markets as Colonial Williamsburg and Jamestown are on this route south of Richmond on the Hampton Roads branch.


An expansion of service down the Norfolk Southern line to Lynchburg is long overdue. There has been unmet demand in Charlottesville for additional train service for decades. A new frequency on this route is an almost guaranteed success from a popularity standpoint, and stands a chance of financial success with some further tweaking, such as bringing the State of North Carolina into the deal, and extending this train all the way south to Charlotte, providing a second North Carolina-Washington-New York frequency over a different route. An extension of Lynchburg to Charlotte is only another four and a half hours, making this train a convenient 12 to 14 hour run, depending on station dwell times. This fits nicely into equipment and maintenance turn cycles, as well as train and engine crew turns. The larger mathematical matrix which would be created by making this a longer run, coupled with the dynamic growth along with the more western route in North Carolina could easily provide a break-even or profitable train if all expenses and revenues were correctly and honestly applied to the train instead of using Amtrak’s current accounting system.


3) Here’s a challenge for TWA readers. In the midst of an exciting presidential election year, incredibly many rail fans are planning to make their choice for voting for president just based on how the final nominees of both major political parties feel about Amtrak.



So, here’s your challenge. Of the four remaining political candidates, do some objective research on your favorite political candidate. Write a brief position paper (500 words or less, preferably much less) on why your favorite candidate will be the best steward of Amtrak. You must use the Queen’s English, and your paper must include rational thought, not knee-jerk reaction. Anything you say for one candidate or against another candidate must be able to be verified through studious research.


The best submissions will be published in TWA; there may be more than one selection for each candidate if the quality of writing and quality of argument merits. Your name and city and state where you reside will be published, too, along with you e-mail address so others may congratulate or castigate you for your opinions. Submissions will only be accepted by e-mail. You may write in either Microsoft Word or WordPerfect, sending those files as an e-mail attachment, or using your e-mail program.


Please try to have all submissions to brichardson@unitedrail.org sent prior to March 4, 2008. We look forward to selecting the most rational submissions for publication.


3) Here’s a closing thought, thinking primarily about the Florida service long distance trains, but this really applies to every long distance train in Amtrak’s national system.


In March of 1999, just eight years ago, URPA published a white paper, Suggested Rationalization of Amtrak Florida Service (This paper is available on the URPA web site, www.unitedrail.org).


Here are some important ridership numbers from that paper. Unfortunately, at that time, revenue passenger mile numbers were not available from Amtrak as they are today.


At the end of 1998, the same two daily passenger trains which come into Florida today, the Silver Meteor and Silver Star, both carried 18 car consists, including a crew dormitory, three sleepers, a diner, buffet diner, full lounge, nine coaches, and two baggage cars. Auto Train, the combined passenger and auto carrying train, carried a crew dormitory, five sleepers, two diners, one buffet diner, two lounges, and seven coaches, totaling 18 cars, plus the car carriers. The Palmetto and Sunset Limited also served Florida at that time.


Today, the Meteor and Star are the only two trains serving Florida, with one train carrying two sleepers and one train carrying three. Since no crew cars are on these trains as were on the 1990s consists, revenue sleeping car space is assigned to train crew members, blocking revenue income. Four, sometimes three coaches are used, along with one dining car and one lounge car. The Auto Train has been converted to bi-level Superliners, with slightly higher capacity than when it was a single level train.


While tourism in Florida is down, Florida remains one of the healthiest tourism destinations in the nation. New hotels are still being built, and attendance at major attractions such as Walt Disney World remains strong. More cruise ships are sailing from Florida ports, and airline service into Florida has remained overall healthy.


Now, look at the numbers for Amtrak, based on total boardings and alightings at Florida stations.


1993 – 1,262,059
1994 – 1,167,838
1995 – 1,125,571
1996 – 1,002,009
1997 – 928,252
1998 – 976,301

2006 – 764,363
2007 – 840,095


This begs the question, why has Amtrak artificially constrained capacity in and out of Florida? While there has been an admirable bump from 2006 to 2007, why isn’t Amtrak adding equipment and/or extending the Palmetto back to Florida from its truncated southern terminus in Savannah (Done entirely for the convenience of Amtrak’s operating department for easy crew turns.)? Most glaringly, why hasn’t Amtrak brought the Sunset Limited back to Florida, or at least replaced it with similar service?


The difference in numbers between 1993 and 2007 is almost 422,000 annual riders, all generating high revenue passenger miles and long average lengths of trips because most trips begin and end outside of Florida.


Why is Amtrak trying to fail in Florida instead of winning in Florida? Florida’s tourism numbers are good. The overall health of the state economy is good (lots of guaranteed retiree money here keeps things humming along). Why isn’t Amtrak licking its corporate lips and thirsting for more Florida passengers? Does Amtrak care?



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J. Bruce Richardson
President
United Rail Passenger Alliance, Inc.
1526 University Boulevard, West, PMB 203
Jacksonville, Florida 32217-2006 USA
Telephone 904-636-7739
brucerichardson@unitedrail.org
http://www.unitedrail.org